Type 1 diabetes market estimates to reach US$4.4bn by 2017

GlobalData has released a report, "Type 1 Diabetes - Pipeline Assessment and Market Forecasts to 2017". The report estimates the global type 1 diabetes therapeutics market to have been valued at US$2.7bn in 2009.

It is forecast to grow at 6.1 per cent annually for the next seven years to reach US$4.4 bn by 2017. This growth is primarily attributed to the increase in the average cost of therapy and increases in the treatment-seeking populations. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly remain the market leaders.

The available treatment options are moderately successful in meeting the market demand leading to a moderate level of unmet need. A significant market potential exists to be exploited by any new entrant that will cater to the unmet needs for more convenient products with better efficacy and safety.

Emerging therapies in the pipeline are expected to capture a small portion of the unmet need. The pipeline appears to be moderately strong. Despite the high proportion of first-in-class drugs, the pipeline is not very strong as the development stage products are not likely to cater to the needs of all type 1 diabetes patients.

While the pipeline products are not strong enough to impact the current market considerably, the success of these products will drive the market in the long run.

Type 1 diabetes affects only about eight per cent of the total people suffering from diabetes. The prevalence of type 1 diabetes is approximately 0.6 per cent. This accounted for a total diabetes affected population of 4.2 million in 2009. It is an autoimmune condition and is generally found in young adults and children.

The number of people with type 1 diabetes is estimated to increase at a slower rate of 1.2 per cent between 2009 and 2017. It increased at a higher rate of 1.5 percent during the period 2001-2009. Therefore, the increase in the average cost of therapy will be the key to growth in the market.

The average cost of therapy is expected to increase at 4.5 per cent over the period 2009-2017 because of higher cost of insulin analogs.

The current market is dominated by insulin and insulin analog products. These products have similar efficacy and safety profiles with only marginal differences. This has increased the competition further in the market. The manufacturers are forced to compete on pricing or on improving the dosage requirements of their currently marketed products.

In addition, the presence of a few promising drugs such as Oral-lyn and monoclonal antibodies in the late stage pipeline means that the competition will increase further once these products are successfully launched in the market.

The current market also lacks any generic insulin product despite two insulin products losing patent protection. This is because of the lack of proper guidelines for the introduction of biogenerics. In Europe, where guidelines for the approval of biosimilars exist, an application for an insulin biosimilar was filed by Marvel LifeSciences. This was later withdrawn as it did not meet the required guidelines.

The current products are able to achieve better glucose control in the majority of cases. This process of controlling diabetes-related symptoms is generally painful and requires strict compliance to a treatment regime.

The products available are relatively inconvenient in terms of the mode of delivery, which impacts patient compliance. All the products in the market show adverse reactions such as hypoglycemia, local injection site reactions and allergic reactions. These adverse reactions indicate that none of the products offer a completely safe profile.

Therefore the market also faces unmet need in terms of the safety of products. With the exception of human insulin such as Humulin and Novolin, the other insulin products (insulin analogs) are relatively highly priced. This increases the average cost of therapy for these analogs.